Quarantine steps were supposed to halve the aviation recovery

IATA has published a new report highlighting the harm to air travel due to the medium-term extension of COVID-19, with long-haul/international travel being the most seriously affected, further undermining trust in air travel by assessing quarantine measures upon arrival.

IATA and Tourism Economics modelled two air travel scenarios within this study.

Scenario for the Baseline

• This depends on the opening of domestic markets in Q3, with the gradual opening of foreign markets far slower. This will limit the recovery of air travel, considering the majority of projections pointing to a strong economic turnaround late in 2020 and 2021.

• We expect global passenger demand in 2021 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers, RPKs) to be 24% below 2019 levels and 32% lower than IATA's 2021 Air Passenger October 2019 estimate.

• Until 2023, we do not foresee 2019 levels to be surpassed.

• As foreign markets open up and economies recover, air travel can rise further from its 2020 low point. But even by 2025, global RPKs are projected to be 10% lower than the previous estimate.

Scenario gloomy

• This is focused on slower economies opening up and travel constraints easing, with lockdowns stretching into Q3, likely due to a second wave of the virus. This will slow the recovery of air travel further.

• Global RPKs in 2021 may be 34 percent lower than 2019 levels in this case and 41 percent lower than our previous 2021 estimate.

Governments' big stimulus paired with central bank liquidity injections would improve the economic recovery once the pandemic is under control. But it'll take longer to restore passenger trust. Even then it is possible that individual and corporate travelers will treat travel expenses cautiously and remain closer to home,” said Alexandre de Juniac, Director General and CEO of IATA.

An IATA survey conducted in April 2020 of recent air travellers found that 58% are somewhat or quite likely to limit their initial flight to domestic flights. Passenger kilometers (RPKs) of domestic revenue can only rebound to 2019 levels by 2022. Only in 2024 are foreign RPKs projected to return to 2019 levels.

The effect of the crisis on long-haul travel will be even more serious and will last longer than is anticipated in domestic markets. This makes biosecurity criteria for the travel process internationally accepted and applied all the more important. To avoid the repercussions of uncoordinated unilateral actions that marked the post-9/11 period, we have a limited window. We must act quickly,' de Juniac said.

IATA firmly advises states, as part of the post-pandemic travel restrictions, to find alternatives to retaining or implementing arrival quarantine measures. Recent air travelers surveyed by IATA in April found that 86% of travelers were somewhat or very worried about being quarantined while flying, and 69% would not consider traveling if a 14-day quarantine period was involved.

Even in the best of times, this crisis would cost many jobs and deprive the economy of years of growth spurred by aviation. To protect the potential of aviation to be a catalyst for economic recovery, by rendering travel impracticable with quarantine steps, we must not make the prognosis worse. For safe travel, we need a solution which addresses two challenges. It must give trust to travelers to fly safely and without unnecessary inconvenience and it must give confidence to governments that they are shielded from importing the virus. Our idea is for temporary non-quarantine steps to be layered before a vaccine, immunity passport or near-instant COVID-19 test is available at scale,' de Juniac said.

The IATA proposal for a temporary risk-based approach to provide governments with confidence to open their borders without quarantining arrivals includes preventing travel by those who are symptomatic of temperature screening and other measures, and addressing the risks of asymptomatic travelers with governments that manage a robust health declaration system and vigorous trace contact